Coronavirus Update 0700GMT 30 March 2020

The humans are winning in every country!

In previous posts I described my proprietary method of deciding who is winning the pandemic, the virus or the humans. You can go back there and see the math behind the method. Briefly, it calculates the number of days for a ten-fold increase in cases in a country (DTFG) and then uses ranges for the resulting number for the referee to make the call as to who’s winning and who’s losing, and where the game is tied or a stalemate.

Today I want to see what progress, if any, has been made by the humans in the last seven days, a week.

Twitter version: Every country improved!

The way to read this chart is, first colored column, where each country was on March 23rd. Next column is where each country was on March 30, seven days later. The fraction in that third column is the DTFG for the 23rd slash the DTFG for the 30th. If the number is getting larger with time, a country is making progress.

So here we go:

China and South Korea have declared victory and their numbers keep getting bigger. Why keep counting their numbers? Because the way the math works, if the virus starts sneaking back the first sign will be this number starts getting smaller: finally, an early warning system!

Next we have the ‘humans winning’ category. This went from only two countries to five. And in every country, the DTFG number is larger now than a week ago. Good job!

Next are six countries that were at a stalemate with the virus a week ago and, although they are still at a stalemate, their DTFG has increased. They are making progress. You can see just how much progress they made in a week and since they have to get above 15 to get the green flag, make a game of it and guess which country will be winning by this time next week and which ones won’t quite be there.

Finally, a week ago five countries were losing to the virus and today only one is, the US. The other four have transitioned to being at a stalemate, which must be a wonderful feeling for them. As for the US. I project we will cross over to a stalemate sometime within the next 96 hours. (The details were the US was at about 9.6 which I rounded up and could have made it yellow but I didn’t and kept it in the red zone to be conservative).

Don’t worry, I will keep track of the US progress for you and will report as soon as the referee gives the US the yellow flag, saying the game is finally tied in the US.

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