Coronavirus update, 0210 GMT. A good trend…

Chart 1. The serious cases are at the lowest level since Feb 6th, over a month ago. Remember my ‘rule:’ you can’t die without being a serious case somewhere in the system, so a good predictor of the next week or so. It also broke an upward tick of serious cases we had a day ago; the down today might be a weekend reporting effect (folks are less vigilant in hospitals, etc. over the weekend) so will keep an eye on it.

Graph 2. 86% of active cases still in four countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran. France breaks into the top four for serious cases, replacing Iran. This is entirely because Iran doesn’t report serious cases. But it does show France is struggling a little.

US serious rate at eight for eighth day in a row. Surprisingly stable. BTW, I had an idea that folks were dying of coronavirus before being diagnosed and so I checked the CDC for a spike in pneumonia deaths, which might be coronavirus deaths not reported as such. None, actually pneumonia deaths trending downward.

Graph 3. When you watch the hours of coronavirus news this weekend on TV, please remember the two MD guild rules, secret since the time of de Vinci, which I will reveal to you now:

  1. When you, as a doctor, don’t know something revert to lot’s of Latin and a few big words. Latin’s been a dead language for 1600 years and so no one will call you out; and the white coat reflects not only broad-band visible light…but patient criticisms as well.
  2. Don’t reveal that you can cure a disease in a week but if the patient just stays home and drinks orange juice and eats chicken soup, they will recover in seven days. Very bad for business.

I will now be in witness protection for this ‘reveal’ so PM me if you need something!