A/K/A the [China, South Korea, Italy, Iran] Virus:
95% of total cases in those four countries
88% of active cases in those four countries
86% of new cases in last 24 hours in those four countries
US report: five days of 7-8 serious cases is encouraging. This stability means when a death takes someone off this list they are being replaced with a new serious patient at about the same rate. Personally sad of course but public health perspective encouraging. If serious number starts to grow it is serious.
The South Korea [serious]/[active] ratio, applied to the US, suggests about 1500 active cases in US. South Korea has best DNA testing data.
US testing is the gap between 335 ‘total cases’ reported here and the untested, asymptomatic 1165 or so because US testing is just coming on line. So expect an artificial ‘surge’ in US cases over next week as DNA evidence replaces clinical symptoms.
